Coalition for Darfur: Improvement is in the Eye of the Beholder

This week's Coalition for Darfur post questions UN Secretary General's recent claims that the situation in Darfur is improving, in light of continued reports of the Sudanese government's role in systematic rape and murder in the region. In fairness, I think all Annan is saying is that the situation, which he elsewhere describes in quite dire terms ("hell on Earth" according to USA Today), is not quite as bad now as it has been in the past. That is not the same as saying the situation is good. (If there were 10,000 rapes in January and 8,000 rapes in April, then one could say the situation has improved, though it is still far from good.) Annan writes

In recent months the situation has stabilized, and fewer large-scale crimes have been reported. A massive UN-led humanitarian operation is under way, with over 10,000 humanitarian workers (mostly Sudanese) delivering food, water, shelter and other life-saving relief to up to 1.8 million people. In the areas where AU troops are on the ground their heroic efforts have made a real difference: people are less exposed to predatory violence, many have returned to their villages, and attacks have decreased.

The humanitarian situation is thus undoubtedly better in some areas than it was a year ago, but access remains limited, the harassment of humanitarian workers has increased, and insecurity remains unacceptably high. Hundreds of thousands of war-affected people are still not receiving the help they need, and the AU troops are as yet far too few to deploy throughout the whole vast territory. Relief workers are often harassed by local authorities, and sometimes even attacked, kidnapped or threatened with violence. Nongovernmental relief workers from abroad find it increasingly hard to obtain visas. And trucks delivering aid are hijacked, often by rebels. Early this month two drivers for the World Food Program were killed in separate incidents. As a result, aid does not get through to many of those who most need it.

Part of the reason Annan sees fewer large-scale crimes is that, as I wrote before, organized violence in Darfur has given way to organized starvation and famine. Eric Reeves writes,

Sometime in the summer of 2004 (we will never know precisely when), genocidal destruction in Darfur became more a matter of engineered disease and malnutrition than violent killing. In other words, disease and malnutrition proceeding directly from the consequences of violent attacks on villages, deliberate displacement, and systematic destruction of the means of agricultural production among the targeted non-Arab or African tribal groups became the major killers. Violence may still be the largest source of overall mortality among the approximately 400,000 who have perished... But there came a point within the last year in which ongoing genocide was no longer primarily a result of direct slaughter, but of a cruel attrition.

This all leads to the conclusion that we must take a comprehensive view of Darfur. Mass killing through starvation is little different than mass killing through guns. If we simply look at violence, we will draw a mistakenly optimistic appraisal of what is happening there.